Whither the dollar?

Filed Under Currency Exchange
Strong U.S. consumer price data led to a lower than expected federal reserve interest rate cut, causing the strongest one-day dollar rally against the Euro since May, 2005. By the end of the day Friday the 14th, the Euro fell 1.5 percent to 1.4412, the lowest it has been since October. This is the third week in a row that the dollar has rallied against major currencies.Strong consumer spending reports have served to partially abate worries that the mortgage crisis would force the US economy into a recession, and widespread inflationary concerns would seem to point to a continued conservative approach to interest rate cuts by the feds, which is more good news for the greenback.Many analysts are now predicting the dollar rally will continue in the short term, fingering 1.43—or even 1.40—as reasonable support levels. Moreover, there has been a rising chorus of voices saying that the dollar will rebound in 2008, due to shrinking budget and trade deficits. If we are correct in assuming that the Fed will be conservative in cutting interest rates, this will lead to an increased international appetite for investment in the US market, creating greater demand for the dollar.On the other hand, we are wary that the dollar rally is simply a correction, rather than a trend reversal. Furthermore, we would not be surprised to see another test of the $1.50 level in the short term, even if prospects for the dollar are good in 2008.w